Where the market is wrong on United States v Bosnia and Herzegovina
United States meet Bosnia and Herzegovina in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32. The model makes United States the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 53% USA, 24% draw, 22% BIH.
The baseline ratings are close, 1870 to 1790, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans United States, 68% against 58%. Attacking output favors United States on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Model score projection: most likely United States 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.0.
The market prices USA at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Bosnia and Herzegovina: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output