Switzerland v Colombia

Switzerland meet Colombia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16. The model makes Colombia the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 31% SUI, 26% draw, 43% COL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1890 to 1920, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 70%. Attacking output favors Colombia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Switzerland 0-1 Colombia, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.4.

The market prices SUI at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Switzerland: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.