Mexico v England

Mexico meet England in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Estadio Banorte, Mexico City. The model makes England the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 23% MEX, 24% draw, 53% ENG.

England rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2040 to 1880. Recent form separates little, 66% against 72%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Mexico 0-1 England, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.7.

The market prices MEX at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on England: a 15.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.