Match analysisPre-match brief
Canada v Morocco: the model read
Canada meet Morocco in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at NRG Stadium, Houston. The model makes Morocco the most likely outcome at 47%, with the full read 27% CAN, 26% draw, 47% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1840 to 1910, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 72%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.5 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Canada 0-1 Morocco, from expected goals of 1.0 to 1.5.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output