Where the market is wrong on Australia v Egypt
Australia meet Egypt in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32. The model makes Egypt the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% AUS, 29% draw, 35% EGY.
The baseline ratings are close, 1810 to 1800, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 62% against 62%. Attacking output favors Australia on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.2 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Australia 0-1 Egypt, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.1.
The market prices AUS at 29% implied. Our number sits apart on Australia: a 6.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output