Model track record
We publish how the model actually does. Every forecast is a pre-match snapshot, settled against the real result, with nothing edited after the fact. Below is the match-outcome accuracy and the Brier score, segmented by competition, type and month.
Matches scored
104
Outcome accuracy
70.2%
Brier · skill vs naive
0.479 +24.3%
Matches
104
Accuracy
70.2%
Brier
0.479
Skill vs naive
+24.3%
Showing · All settled forecasts · since Jun 11, 2026
Awaiting first results: Continental competitions, Regional competitions, National competitions, Leagues, International friendlies, Club friendlies. No forecasts in these categories have settled yet — each fills in automatically once its matches are played and graded.
By category
| Segment | Matches | Accuracy | Brier | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | 104 | 70.2% | 0.479 | +24.3% |
By competition
| Segment | Matches | Accuracy | Brier | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup 2026 | 104 | 70.2% | 0.479 | +24.3% |
By month
| Segment | Matches | Accuracy | Brier | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 78 | 65.4% | 0.499 | +22.2% |
| July 2026 | 26 | 84.6% | 0.419 | +24.7% |
How to read this. Accuracy is the share of matches where the model's most-likely outcome (win, draw or loss) was correct. The Brier score measures how well-calibrated the whole probability vector was (0 is perfect, lower is better). Skill compares the model's Brier to a naive baseline that just predicts the base rate; a positive number means the model beat it.
Coverage is deepest for the ongoing World Cup today; other competitions segment in automatically as their forecasts settle. This is a live record, updated as matches finish.