v1 vs v2
v2 is a time-decayed, opponent-adjusted rating engine built and gated through the same walk-forward discipline as everything else here. It is not live — every forecast on the site today comes from v1. This page is the record of v2's own testing, published before any decision to change that.
← Back to the full track recordWalk-forward backtest (simulated)
v1 (live)
0.633 +2.08%
265,477 settled
v2 (banked)
0.616 +5.34%
50,492 settled
What each model version would have scored on history, forecasting each match using only results that existed before it. This is slice 1's own gate result — v2 is a time-decayed, opponent-adjusted Dixon-Coles rating engine; v1 is the model as it stood when the improvement program began.
Live forecasts
v1 (live)
0.621 +3.91%
2,094 settled
v2 (banked)
No settled forecasts yet.
Real pre-match snapshots, settled against the result and never edited afterwards. v1 is the live model everyone sees today. v2 accrues its own real forecasts here — banked for research, not shown to users — so its live record can be judged before any decision to ship it.
2026-06-11 to 2026-08-20
v2 is not live: every prediction on the site today comes from v1. This page exists so v2's record — backtest and, as it accrues, live — is visible before any decision to change that, the same glass-box standard applied to everything else here.
By league — backtest
| League | v1 skill↓ | v2 skill↓ | Δ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friendlies Clubs | +1.3% | -6.8% | -8.1% |
| Copa Sudamericana | -2.1% | +0.1% | +2.2% |
| Colombia Primera A | -3.6% | -0.6% | +3.0% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | +2.8% | +9.7% | +7.0% |
| Copa Libertadores | -5.8% | +4.6% | +10.4% |
| Argentina Primera Division | -2.2% | -0.4% | +1.7% |
| Scottish Premiership | +5.3% | +12.2% | +6.9% |
| G1 | +3.4% | +13.0% | +9.6% |
| B1 | +2.0% | +7.6% | +5.7% |
| Primeira Liga | +6.7% | +14.3% | +7.6% |
| Eredivisie | +4.7% | +11.5% | +6.8% |
| D2 | -1.1% | +1.1% | +2.2% |
| T1 | +1.7% | +6.3% | +4.7% |
| Bundesliga | +2.8% | +7.4% | +4.7% |
| F2 | -2.1% | +1.3% | +3.5% |
| Ligue 1 | +1.3% | +7.4% | +6.1% |
| La Liga | +1.5% | +7.5% | +6.0% |
| Serie A | +3.7% | +10.7% | +6.9% |
| I2 | -1.5% | +1.8% | +3.3% |
| Premier League | +3.3% | +9.3% | +6.0% |
| SP2 | -3.5% | -0.1% | +3.4% |
| E2 | +0.2% | +3.4% | +3.3% |
| E3 | -0.7% | +0.7% | +1.4% |
| Championship | -0.8% | +1.8% | +2.5% |
Backtest skill per league, walk-forward on historical results. v2's numbers come from its own gate; v1's from the model's archived record. A league missing a v1 or v2 number hasn't cleared the minimum sample (n=30) yet.
v2
Time-decayed, opponent-adjusted Dixon-Coles ratings (365d half-life) + per-league fitted rho
Gate: pooled 3-class Brier old=0.6380 -> new=0.6162 (Δ=-0.0217), 22/24 leagues improved. Banked for accrual only (Phase 5) — not the live model. Re-derived edge gate + public comparison page + the live flip itself are separate, later steps.