France v Spain

France meet Spain in the FIFA World Cup 2026 semifinal. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 30% FRA, 25% draw, 45% ESP.

The baseline ratings are close, 2060 to 2080, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 80%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 0-1 Spain, from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.5.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 60%; double chance reads France or draw 55%, Spain or draw 70%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.