Where the market is wrong on Spain v Austria
Spain meet Austria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at SoFi Stadium, undefined. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 63%, with the full read 63% ESP, 21% draw, 16% AUT.
Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2080 to 1860. Recent form leans Spain, 80% against 68%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.5 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Spain 1-0 Austria, from expected goals of 2.0 to 0.9.
The market prices ESP at 74% implied. Our number sits apart on Austria: a 7.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output