Analysis

Match and market analysis.

Analysis·Jun 20, 2026

Portugal to win the World Cup: the Lemeister model's case

The baseline still makes Portugal champions of the 2026 World Cup. We walk the live Group K table, the knockout path to the final past a surging Netherlands, and the real model numbers behind every step — with the bracket and MeisterQuery to explore it yourself.

4 min read

Analysis·Jun 2, 2026

Group-stage value: where the market misprices underdogs

Tournament group stages create recurring pricing mistakes. Here is where the edge tends to hide.

1 min read

Analysis·May 28, 2026

How Lemeister models a World Cup match: inputs, probabilities and edges

A walk through the glass-box baseline. Elo, recent form and an expected-goals proxy become a probability, then an edge against the market.

1 min read

Analysis·May 20, 2026

Reading the market: what odds movement tells you before kickoff

Prices move for reasons. Here is how to separate sharp money and real news from noise, and what it means for your edge.

1 min read

Analysis·May 12, 2026

Expected goals, demystified: what xG can and cannot tell you

xG measures chance quality, not destiny. A plain guide to what the number means and where it misleads.

1 min read