Spain v Belgium

Spain meet Belgium in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal. The model makes Spain the most likely outcome at 59%, with the full read 59% ESP, 22% draw, 19% BEL.

Spain rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2080 to 1960. Recent form leans Spain, 80% against 66%. Attacking output favors Spain on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.7 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Spain 1-0 Belgium, from expected goals of 1.9 to 1.0.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 57%. Draw no bet leans Spain at 75%; double chance reads Spain or draw 81%, Belgium or draw 41%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.