France v Morocco

France meet Morocco in the FIFA World Cup 2026 quarterfinal. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% FRA, 27% draw, 27% MAR.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1910. Recent form separates little, 74% against 72%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 Morocco, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.0.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.