Skip to content
Lemeister
Glass box

Model track record

We publish how the model actually does. Every forecast is a pre-match snapshot, settled against the real result, with nothing edited after the fact. Below is the match-outcome accuracy and the Brier score, segmented by competition, type and month.

This week

424/848

50.0% correct

Brier 0.618

This month

500/1,000

50.0% correct

Brier 0.619

스코어 매치

10892

결과 정확도

47.2%

Brier · 기술 vs 단순

0.626 +2.3%

Group by
PeriodLive forecasts + late backtest · Jun 1, 2026 – present
Category

Matches

2007

Accuracy

48.0%

Brier

0.620

Log loss

1.034

Skill vs naive

+3.5%

Showing · All settled forecasts · Jun 1, 2026 – present

Backtest: Jan 2010 – Jul 2026 (walk-forward, no look-ahead). Live: Aug 2026 – present (real-time pre-match snapshots).

Awaiting first results: World Cup, Club friendlies. No forecasts in these categories have settled yet — each fills in automatically once its matches are played and graded.

Glossary — what do these numbers mean?

Outcome accuracy

The share of matches where the model's highest-probability outcome (home win, draw, or away win) was the actual result. A coin flip would score ~33% across three outcomes; the model aims to beat that with calibrated forecasts.

Brier score

The average squared error between the forecast probability vector [P(home), P(draw), P(away)] and the actual outcome (encoded as [1,0,0], [0,1,0], or [0,0,1]). Ranges from 0 (perfect) to 2 (maximally wrong). Lower is always better. Unlike accuracy, it rewards confident correct calls and penalises confident wrong ones.

Skill vs naive

How much the model improves on a naive baseline that just uses the observed home/draw/away base rates for each match. Calculated as 1 − (model Brier ÷ baseline Brier). A positive number means the model beats the baseline; zero means it matches it; negative means the baseline was better on that slice. A good forecasting model consistently posts positive skill.

Log loss

The mean negative log-likelihood of the correct outcome under the forecast distribution. Similar to Brier but penalises overconfident wrong predictions more severely — assigning 1% probability to an outcome that actually happens costs far more than assigning 40%. Lower is better. Shown for completeness; Brier and skill are the primary metrics here.

Backtest vs live

Historical data (Jan 2010 – Jul 2026) uses walk-forward backtesting: each match is forecast using only results that existed before it, with no look-ahead. Live forecasts (Aug 2026 onward) are genuine pre-match snapshots logged in real time. Both are included together in this record.

Sorting the tables

Click any column header to sort by that metric. Click again to toggle ascending/descending. Brier and log loss sort ascending by default (lower is better); matches, accuracy and skill sort descending (higher is better).

By category

SegmentMatchesAccuracyBrier ↓bestSkill
Continental competitions6141.0%0.666-7.4%
National competitions17149.7%0.640-5.3%
International friendlies26249.6%0.620-0.2%
Regional competitions38956.0%0.567+8.6%
Leagues10,00946.8%0.628+2.2%

By competition

SegmentMatchesAccuracyBrier ↓bestSkill
Friendly (Afghanistan)1100.0%0.384+0.0%
Super Cup (Albania)10.0%0.723+0.0%
Super Cup (Algeria)10.0%0.652+0.0%
CFU Caribbean Cup qualification (Anguilla)1100.0%0.201+0.0%
Friendly (Anguilla)1100.0%0.435+0.0%
Super Copa (Argentina)10.0%0.734+0.0%
Trofeo de Campeones de la Superliga (Argentina)1100.0%0.444+0.0%
Super Cup (Armenia)10.0%0.748+0.0%
Soccer Ashes (Australia)10.0%0.997+0.0%
Superclásico de las Américas (Australia)10.0%1.243+0.0%
African Cup of Nations (Angola)2100.0%0.463+7.4%
Superclásico de las Américas (Argentina)20.0%0.782-56.5%
Friendly (Aruba)250.0%0.565-12.9%
CFU Caribbean Cup qualification (Antigua and Barbuda)333.3%0.619-39.4%
CONCACAF Nations League qualification (Antigua and Barbuda)366.7%0.745-67.5%
ABCS Tournament (Aruba)333.3%0.658-48.1%
AFC Asian Cup qualification (Australia)366.7%0.391+12.0%
UEFA Nations League (Austria)333.3%0.663+0.6%
FIFA Series (Algeria)450.0%0.537-7.5%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Anguilla)475.0%0.383-2.2%
CFU Caribbean Cup qualification (Aruba)4100.0%0.324+35.3%
FIFA Series (Australia)425.0%0.969+0.0%
Northern Territory Premier League (Australia)40.0%0.778-55.6%
Regionalliga - South (Austria)425.0%0.796-27.3%
CONCACAF Series (Antigua and Barbuda)560.0%0.489+23.6%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Aruba)520.0%0.653-104.0%
Brisbane Premier League (Australia)560.0%0.625-95.2%
CONCACAF Nations League (Aruba)683.3%0.514-15.6%
Capital Territory NPL 2 (Australia)633.3%0.758-24.0%
Regionalliga - North (Austria)683.3%0.510-14.8%
Copa Constitució (Andorra)757.1%0.549-12.1%
CONCACAF Nations League qualification (Anguilla)850.0%0.584-43.8%
Muratti Vase (Alderney)10100.0%0.192+0.0%
Friendly (Andorra)1070.0%0.479+11.2%
Friendly (Antigua and Barbuda)1060.0%0.607-4.6%
UEFA Nations League (Albania)1136.4%0.694-7.6%
UEFA Nations League (Andorra)1136.4%0.628-11.8%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Angola)119.1%0.710-7.4%
CONCACAF Nations League (Antigua and Barbuda)1172.7%0.527-2.9%
UEFA Nations League (Armenia)1154.5%0.642-29.4%
CONCACAF Nations League (Anguilla)1233.3%0.667-33.5%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Antigua and Barbuda)1266.7%0.563+8.0%
Friendly (Angola)1526.7%0.633-4.8%
Friendly (Armenia)1540.0%0.694-8.5%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Andorra)1675.0%0.368-14.9%
CFU Caribbean Cup (Antigua and Barbuda)1650.0%0.658-4.0%
UEFA Euro qualification (Albania)1735.3%0.703-6.9%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Algeria)1776.5%0.508+0.8%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Armenia)1764.7%0.561-6.7%
UEFA Euro qualification (Armenia)1752.9%0.571+12.2%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Austria)1752.9%0.613-8.1%
UEFA Euro qualification (Austria)1747.1%0.573-11.8%
Australia Cup (Australia)1838.9%0.714-44.5%
UEFA Euro qualification (Andorra)1973.7%0.440-127.0%
Friendly (Argentina)1968.4%0.466-68.1%
Friendly (Albania)2254.5%0.630+4.1%
African Cup of Nations qualification (Algeria)2272.7%0.504-205.1%
African Cup of Nations qualification (Angola)2222.7%0.685-15.1%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Albania)2378.3%0.502+9.1%
Cup (Armenia)2347.8%0.609+5.2%
Friendly (Australia)2334.8%0.684-34.1%
Copa América (Argentina)2634.6%0.689-11.4%
Cup (Albania)2748.1%0.631-18.6%
Friendly (Algeria)2951.7%0.597-36.5%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Australia)3151.6%0.573-54.6%
AFC Asian Cup (Australia)3250.0%0.644-22.5%
Coupe Nationale (Algeria)3447.1%0.671-19.3%
FIFA World Cup qualification (Argentina)3562.9%0.563-13.7%
Australian Championship (Australia)4837.5%0.701-10.5%
Cup (Austria)5154.9%0.614-29.7%
Copa Argentina (Argentina)5937.3%0.670-16.2%
Tasmania Northern Championship (Australia)6576.9%0.504+6.3%
NNSW League 1 (Australia)6650.0%0.596+3.1%
Tasmania Southern Championship (Australia)6654.5%0.587+4.8%
1a Divisió (Andorra)8760.9%0.558+9.5%
A-League Women (Australia)8943.8%0.655-2.3%
Tasmania NPL (Australia)8970.8%0.515+10.4%
Division di Honor (Aruba)9655.2%0.564+9.6%
Frauenliga (Austria)9664.6%0.530+15.9%
Torneo Promocional Amateur (Argentina)9849.0%0.581+8.0%
Premier Division (Antigua-And-Barbuda)9961.6%0.523+14.7%
Capital Territory NPL (Australia)10564.8%0.534+5.3%
Northern NSW NPL (Australia)10748.6%0.643-0.5%
Western Australia State League 1 (Australia)11148.6%0.630-3.7%
South Australia State League 1 (Australia)11251.8%0.610+0.2%
Queensland Premier League (Australia)11356.6%0.566+10.1%
Friendly (Austria)11548.7%0.643+1.6%
Premier League (Armenia)11955.5%0.573+11.1%
Queensland NPL (Australia)12357.7%0.601+0.4%
South Australia NPL (Australia)12350.4%0.597+7.4%
Victoria Premier League 2 (Australia)13056.1%0.589+6.7%
Western Australia NPL (Australia)13046.2%0.635+3.7%
Victoria NPL 2 (Australia)14252.8%0.622-1.0%
A-League (Australia)14539.3%0.675-2.1%
Landesliga - Tirol (Austria)14555.9%0.582+4.6%
Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga (Austria)14744.2%0.655-7.1%
Victoria NPL (Australia)15647.4%0.623+4.6%
Superliga (Albania)16537.0%0.673-2.7%
1st Division (Albania)16856.0%0.594+7.2%
Npl Nsw U20 (Australia)16855.4%0.586+6.3%
Landesliga - Wien (Austria)18150.3%0.622+3.2%
Bundesliga (Austria)18736.4%0.684-5.6%
Landesliga - Steiermark (Austria)19852.0%0.606+5.9%
Girabola (Angola)19946.7%0.637+0.7%
Landesliga - Burgenland (Austria)19948.7%0.619+4.3%
Ligue 1 (Algeria)20042.5%0.646-5.4%
First League (Armenia)20063.0%0.549+11.4%
Landesliga - Karnten (Austria)20045.5%0.646-5.8%
Landesliga - Niederosterreich (Austria)20046.0%0.646+0.9%
Landesliga - Oberosterreich (Austria)20050.5%0.625+1.6%
Landesliga - Salzburg (Austria)20054.0%0.590+3.4%
2. Liga (Austria)20240.1%0.665-2.3%
Regionalliga - Mitte (Austria)20352.7%0.600+2.2%
New South Wales NPL 2 (Australia)20542.4%0.654+0.4%
New South Wales NPL (Australia)21745.2%0.649-3.3%
Regionalliga - Ost (Austria)23749.4%0.617+1.3%
Regionalliga - West (Austria)24354.7%0.593+2.5%
Primera C (Argentina)37835.4%0.670-1.1%
Ligue 2 (Algeria)39747.9%0.616+0.4%
Torneo Federal A (Argentina)39834.7%0.678-13.1%
Primera B Metropolitana (Argentina)41838.3%0.661+0.3%
Liga Profesional Argentina (Argentina)47937.6%0.670-2.2%
Primera Nacional (Argentina)51533.2%0.675-7.3%
Reserve League (Argentina)52244.1%0.653-0.3%

Leagues by geography

SegmentMatchesAccuracyBrier ↓bestSkill
Antigua and Barbuda560.0%0.489+23.6%
Alderney10100.0%0.192+0.0%
Andorra9460.6%0.557+8.6%
Antigua-And-Barbuda9961.6%0.523+14.7%
Aruba9954.5%0.567+8.8%
Angola19946.7%0.637+0.7%
Armenia31960.2%0.558+11.4%
Albania33346.6%0.633+2.4%
Algeria60146.1%0.626-1.3%
Australia2,53151.0%0.615+2.8%
Austria2,84849.3%0.621+1.9%
Argentina2,87137.8%0.665-2.3%

By federation

SegmentMatchesAccuracyBrier ↓bestSkill
Other10965.1%0.493+19.7%
CONCACAF20256.4%0.572+6.0%
CAF95346.4%0.626-2.1%
AFC2,63950.8%0.616+2.4%
CONMEBOL2,95138.2%0.662-2.3%
UEFA4,03850.6%0.614+3.6%

By month

SegmentMatchesAccuracyBrier ↓bestSkill
August 20101100.0%0.357+0.0%
September 201010.0%0.798+0.0%
February 201110.0%0.722+0.0%
April 201110.0%0.723+0.0%
May 201110.0%0.668+0.0%
January 201210.0%0.595+0.0%
March 20121100.0%0.140+0.0%
February 201310.0%0.790+0.0%
May 20131100.0%0.475+0.0%
August 201410.0%0.695+0.0%
April 20161100.0%0.163+0.0%
August 201610.0%0.679+0.0%
April 20181100.0%0.572+0.0%
May 202110.0%0.908+0.0%
January 202210.0%0.634+0.0%
February 202210.0%0.574+0.0%
April 20221100.0%0.207+0.0%
January 20102100.0%0.463+7.4%
January 20172100.0%0.247+0.0%
August 20182100.0%0.462+7.6%
July 2025250.0%0.580-16.0%
August 2011333.3%0.754-69.7%
December 201130.0%0.700-57.4%
February 2012333.3%0.698-57.0%
July 2012333.3%0.658-48.1%
November 2013333.3%0.660+0.0%
December 2014333.3%0.684-53.9%
November 2010425.0%0.754-50.8%
August 201240.0%0.743-18.8%
August 2013475.0%0.582+6.9%
October 2013475.0%0.489+2.2%
November 2014450.0%0.583+6.7%
May 2018450.0%0.566-51.0%
September 2020425.0%0.799-113.1%
November 2022475.0%0.588+5.9%
October 2010540.0%0.587-4.7%
September 2012580.0%0.457+4.7%
November 2012560.0%0.597-24.4%
September 2013540.0%0.533-11.0%
June 2014580.0%0.489-52.8%
June 2019560.0%0.501-56.7%
March 2011650.0%0.643-5.3%
November 2011616.7%0.794-19.1%
September 2015650.0%0.581-16.2%
May 2016650.0%0.615-23.0%
September 2016683.3%0.439+12.2%
October 2021683.3%0.389+12.4%
September 2014742.9%0.605+7.4%
October 2014771.4%0.513+21.4%
October 2015742.9%0.585-43.4%
June 2016728.6%0.807-41.2%
November 2016742.9%0.643-12.6%
September 2017757.1%0.557+14.7%
October 2017757.1%0.467+18.2%
November 2017771.4%0.620+0.0%
October 2018728.6%0.777-36.0%
October 2020757.1%0.548+16.1%
March 2025757.1%0.620-26.6%
June 2011862.5%0.495+20.7%
September 2011862.5%0.561+10.2%
March 2013887.5%0.479+19.3%
June 2013837.5%0.671-13.0%
March 2014862.5%0.507+22.8%
October 2016850.0%0.665-41.8%
March 2018862.5%0.628-5.7%
September 2018875.0%0.524+11.7%
September 2019850.0%0.594-58.3%
October 2019850.0%0.564-6.2%
September 2021850.0%0.526+1.0%
June 2023812.5%0.685-15.4%
November 2024837.5%0.579+11.8%
October 2011966.7%0.523-5.9%
June 2012933.3%0.674-36.4%
October 2012977.8%0.560-13.5%
March 2015977.8%0.373+37.0%
March 2017977.8%0.498+22.5%
June 2017944.4%0.708-104.8%
November 2019955.6%0.582-2.5%
March 2022944.4%0.592+7.9%
September 2023955.6%0.570+11.2%
October 2023944.4%0.623-9.8%
March 2024966.7%0.517+9.0%
November 20211060.0%0.541+18.0%
November 20231060.0%0.560+12.5%
October 20241080.0%0.502-19.6%
May 20121181.8%0.576+8.2%
May 20141118.2%0.719-67.4%
November 20151145.5%0.585+9.3%
March 20161172.7%0.468+16.8%
March 20211190.9%0.430+13.3%
June 20221145.5%0.705-12.3%
September 20241154.5%0.605-21.9%
June 20251154.5%0.545+13.3%
June 20181250.0%0.657-7.5%
June 20241266.7%0.501+17.9%
June 20151384.6%0.503-1.3%
November 20181338.5%0.657-6.7%
November 20201369.2%0.555-2.0%
June 20211338.5%0.674-9.5%
September 20221323.1%0.699-18.1%
March 20191421.4%0.688-20.5%
March 20231442.9%0.594+3.0%
December 20121850.0%0.656-1.3%
July 20112634.6%0.689-11.4%
January 20153650.0%0.643-29.7%
August 20258243.9%0.642+2.1%
January 202626641.0%0.656-2.6%
August 202627352.8%0.607+6.7%
December 202527453.6%0.603+4.3%
February 202661446.6%0.638+0.6%
November 202568646.9%0.632+1.4%
September 202578343.7%0.641-1.5%
July 202683745.6%0.633+2.6%
June 202689748.8%0.613+3.1%
October 202594047.1%0.630+2.9%
March 20261,30046.7%0.638+1.7%
April 20261,53245.2%0.632+2.3%
May 20261,67248.0%0.616+2.5%

See the model, and the market, side by side