United States v Belgium

United States meet Belgium in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Lumen Field, undefined. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 34% USA, 25% draw, 41% BEL.

The baseline ratings are close, 1870 to 1960, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 66%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.6 per match.

Model score projection: most likely United States 0-1 Belgium, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.5.

The market prices USA at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on Belgium: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 68 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.