Argentina v Egypt

Argentina meet Egypt in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 67%, with the full read 67% ARG, 21% draw, 12% EGY.

Argentina rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2100 to 1800. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 62%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Argentina 1-0 Egypt, from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.7.

The market prices ARG at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Egypt: a 2.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 60 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.