Paraguay v France

Paraguay meet France in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 60%, with the full read 17% PAR, 23% draw, 60% FRA.

France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1820. Recent form leans France, 74% against 64%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Paraguay 0-1 France, from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.8.

The market prices PAR at 6% implied. Our number sits apart on Paraguay: a 11.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.