Group D

United States v Australia

Kickoff: Jun 19, 2026, 3:00 PM ET· Lumen Field, Seattle· Fox

FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D

MeisterIQ

Model inputs

Elo rating

0.53 / 0.47

Recent form

0.68 / 0.62

Expected goals

0.53 / 0.43

Defensive solidity

0.63 / 0.60

Win probability

48%

26%

27%

USADrawAUS

vs marketAwaiting live market data

We show our work

Model versus market

Market odds awaiting live data. The edge appears when real prices exist.

1870Baseline rating1810

68%Form62%

1.6Attack1.3

1.1Defense1.2

Probabilities and ratings are Lemeister baseline model estimates. Live data takes precedence as it settles.

Lemeister provides analytics and education, not betting advice or guaranteed outcomes.