South Africa v Canada

South Africa meet Canada in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The model makes Canada the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 29% RSA, 27% draw, 45% CAN.

The baseline ratings are close, 1770 to 1840, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 60% against 64%. Attacking output favors Canada on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely South Africa 0-1 Canada, from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.4.

The market prices RSA at 18% implied. Our number sits apart on South Africa: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.