Where the market is wrong on Portugal v Croatia
Portugal meet Croatia in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at BMO Field, undefined. The model makes Portugal the most likely outcome at 51%, with the full read 51% POR, 24% draw, 25% CRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 2010 to 1930, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 66%. Attacking output favors Portugal on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.5 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Portugal 1-0 Croatia, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.1.
The market prices POR at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Croatia: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output