Where the market is wrong on Netherlands v Morocco
Netherlands meet Morocco in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Estadio BBVA, Monterrey. The model makes Netherlands the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% NED, 27% draw, 33% MAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 2000 to 1910, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 72% against 72%. Attacking output favors Netherlands on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.5 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Netherlands 1-0 Morocco, from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.2.
The market prices NED at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Morocco: a 6.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output