Where the market is wrong on France v Sweden
France meet Sweden in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at MetLife Stadium, undefined. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 62%, with the full read 62% FRA, 21% draw, 17% SWE.
France rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2060 to 1820. Recent form leans France, 74% against 62%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 Sweden, from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.9.
The market prices FRA at 76% implied. Our number sits apart on Sweden: a 8.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 59 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output