Where the market is wrong on England v DR Congo
England meet DR Congo in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, undefined. The model makes England the most likely outcome at 69%, with the full read 69% ENG, 19% draw, 12% COD.
England rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2040 to 1760. Recent form leans England, 72% against 60%. Attacking output favors England on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.2 per match.
Model score projection: most likely England 2-0 DR Congo, from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.8.
The market prices ENG at 76% implied. Our number sits apart on DR Congo: a 4.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 61 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output