Where the market is wrong on Colombia v Ghana
Colombia meet Ghana in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Arrowhead Stadium, undefined. The model makes Colombia the most likely outcome at 57%, with the full read 57% COL, 24% draw, 19% GHA.
Colombia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1920 to 1780. Recent form leans Colombia, 70% against 60%. Attacking output favors Colombia on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Colombia 1-0 Ghana, from expected goals of 1.7 to 0.9.
The market prices COL at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Ghana: a 5.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output