France v England

France meet England in the FIFA World Cup 2026 third place. The model makes France the most likely outcome at 35%, with the full read 35% FRA, 30% draw, 35% ENG.

The baseline ratings are close, 2060 to 2040, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 74% against 72%. Attacking output favors France on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.9 per match.

Model score projection: most likely France 1-0 England, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.3.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 51%. Draw no bet leans France at 50%; double chance reads France or draw 65%, England or draw 65%.

The market prices FRA at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on England: a 9.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.