v1 مقابل v2
v2 هو محرك تقييم يعتمد على توهين الوقت وتعديل الخصم، تم بناؤه واختباره بنفس منهجية المشي الأمامي المستخدمة في كل شيء آخر هنا. إنه ليس مباشرًا — كل توقع على الموقع اليوم يأتي من v1. هذه الصفحة هي سجل اختبار v2 نفسه، المنشور قبل أي قرار بتغيير ذلك.
← العودة إلى السجل الكاملWalk-forward backtest (simulated)
v1 (live)
0.633 +2.08%
265,477 settled
v2 (banked)
0.616 +5.34%
50,492 settled
What each model version would have scored on history, forecasting each match using only results that existed before it. This is slice 1's own gate result — v2 is a time-decayed, opponent-adjusted Dixon-Coles rating engine; v1 is the model as it stood when the improvement program began.
Live forecasts
v1 (live)
0.621 +3.91%
2,094 settled
v2 (banked)
No settled forecasts yet.
Real pre-match snapshots, settled against the result and never edited afterwards. v1 is the live model everyone sees today. v2 accrues its own real forecasts here — banked for research, not shown to users — so its live record can be judged before any decision to ship it.
2026-06-11 to 2026-08-20
v2 is not live: every prediction on the site today comes from v1. This page exists so v2's record — backtest and, as it accrues, live — is visible before any decision to change that, the same glass-box standard applied to everything else here.
حسب الدوري — اختبار خلفي
| League | v1 skill↓ | v2 skill↓ | Δ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friendlies Clubs | +1.3% | -6.8% | -8.1% |
| Copa Sudamericana | -2.1% | +0.1% | +2.2% |
| Colombia Primera A | -3.6% | -0.6% | +3.0% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | +2.8% | +9.7% | +7.0% |
| Copa Libertadores | -5.8% | +4.6% | +10.4% |
| Argentina Primera Division | -2.2% | -0.4% | +1.7% |
| Scottish Premiership | +5.3% | +12.2% | +6.9% |
| G1 | +3.4% | +13.0% | +9.6% |
| B1 | +2.0% | +7.6% | +5.7% |
| Primeira Liga | +6.7% | +14.3% | +7.6% |
| Eredivisie | +4.7% | +11.5% | +6.8% |
| D2 | -1.1% | +1.1% | +2.2% |
| T1 | +1.7% | +6.3% | +4.7% |
| Bundesliga | +2.8% | +7.4% | +4.7% |
| F2 | -2.1% | +1.3% | +3.5% |
| Ligue 1 | +1.3% | +7.4% | +6.1% |
| La Liga | +1.5% | +7.5% | +6.0% |
| Serie A | +3.7% | +10.7% | +6.9% |
| I2 | -1.5% | +1.8% | +3.3% |
| Premier League | +3.3% | +9.3% | +6.0% |
| SP2 | -3.5% | -0.1% | +3.4% |
| E2 | +0.2% | +3.4% | +3.3% |
| E3 | -0.7% | +0.7% | +1.4% |
| Championship | -0.8% | +1.8% | +2.5% |
مهارة الاختبار الخلفي لكل دوري، بالمشي الأمامي على النتائج التاريخية. أرقام v2 تأتي من بوابته الخاصة؛ أرقام v1 من السجل المؤرشف للنموذج. الدوري الذي يفتقد رقم v1 أو v2 لم يتجاوز الحد الأدنى للعينة (n=30) بعد.
v2
Time-decayed, opponent-adjusted Dixon-Coles ratings (365d half-life) + per-league fitted rho
Gate: pooled 3-class Brier old=0.6380 -> new=0.6162 (Δ=-0.0217), 22/24 leagues improved. Banked for accrual only (Phase 5) — not the live model. Re-derived edge gate + public comparison page + the live flip itself are separate, later steps.