Where the market is wrong on Switzerland v Algeria
Switzerland meet Algeria in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at BC Place, undefined. The model makes Switzerland the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% SUI, 26% draw, 31% ALG.
The baseline ratings are close, 1890 to 1820, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 64% against 64%. Attacking output favors Switzerland on expected goals, 1.5 to 1.4 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Switzerland 1-0 Algeria, from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.2.
The market prices SUI at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Algeria: a 7.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output