Where the market is wrong on Germany v Paraguay
Germany meet Paraguay in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Gillette Stadium, undefined. The model makes Germany the most likely outcome at 53%, with the full read 53% GER, 24% draw, 23% PAR.
Germany rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1990 to 1820. Recent form separates little, 70% against 64%. Attacking output favors Germany on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Germany 1-0 Paraguay, from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.0.
The market prices GER at 72% implied. Our number sits apart on Paraguay: a 13.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output