Where the market is wrong on Belgium v Senegal
Belgium meet Senegal in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 32 at Lumen Field, undefined. The model makes Belgium the most likely outcome at 45%, with the full read 45% BEL, 26% draw, 29% SEN.
The baseline ratings are close, 1960 to 1850, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 66%. Attacking output favors Belgium on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Model score projection: most likely Belgium 1-0 Senegal, from expected goals of 1.5 to 1.2.
The market prices BEL at 44% implied. Our number sits apart on Senegal: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output